IHS Chemical Week


Chemical Volumes Set to Rebound: Report

10:28 AM MDT | April 3, 2009 | By VINCENT VALK

“Chemical volumes will bounce back sharply in the current quarter,” or so says a report by Fred Peterson of Probe Economics (Hanover, NH), a consulting firm.

Really? Really.

Massive destocking occurred in 2008 due to a surprisingly sharp economic decline, volatile fuel prices, and tight credit, the report says. While some of those conditions persist, probe notes that final consumption is down just two percent. Thus, the firm sees shipments rising by 21% from the fourth quarter of 2008 to the end of this year. Check it out:

Before you get cracking, though, you should probably know that “Probe does not expect the rise in chemical volumes to lead to pricing power or any sustainable increase in chemical margins.” Plus, this is just one forecast. Still, it’s nice to hear a little good news.

Comments (1) for Chemical Volumes Set to Rebound: Report
It's been my observation that Peterson has been right considerably more often than he's been wrong. Timing and magnitude depend, of course, on how soon and how fast the economy recovers (I'm in the "slow-go" camp myself); but I think his theme is right on.
Posted by John Zimmerman on Monday, April 27, 2009 @ 06:34 PM

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