Catalyst

Discussions at the Gulf Petrochemicals and Chemicals Association (GPCA; Dubai) second annual forum, held this week in Dubai, illustrate that it is no longer accurate to tag the Mideast as an emerging or developing region, at least when it comes to petrochemicals.
Mideast operations now define the world-scale standard in ethylene and derivatives, and the region is set to dominate petchem world trade. Mideast polyethylene (PE) exports will more than triple between 2006 and 2012, to 8.8 million m.t./year, says Volker Trautz, CEO of Basell. In polypropylene (PP), the region will shift from an importer in 2006 to a net exporter of 4.4 million m.t. by 2012.
Global petchem markets and margins have remained strong for the past few years, aided by healthy global demand and tight supply as a result of Mideast capacity delays. Basell has lowered its internal 2008-09 PP and PE capacity estimates due to project construction delays across the Mideast, but has raised its 2011 estimates by more than 5 million m.t./year compared with its 2006 forecast as delayed and newly announced capacity comes online. “Today’s situation should not lead to complacency,” Trautz says. “We are facing [an even larger] surge from the Mideast but it will occur later.